Will Hegseth survive the midterm rout? Trump says yes, but Democrats are lining up subpoenas and impeachment talk

Pete Hegseth woke up Wednesday as the most exposed member of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet. The war he ran in Iran had just helped cost Republicans both chambers of Congress, and the Democrats taking over in January have spent months promising to investigate him.

By the afternoon, Trump had offered public support. Privately, according to multiple reports, he was asking whether to keep him.

What Trump said, and what he reportedly asked

Trump told reporters on Nov. 4 that Hegseth would stay, saying he was “doing a great job,” ABC News reported. In the same remarks, Trump acknowledged that the Iran war had contributed to his party’s losses.

The admission matters because the war is widely seen as a cause of the defeat. Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war for the Republican losses, NBC News reported, and Axios reported that Vance had privately warned the unpopular war could cost Republicans the election, according to Iran International. Hegseth was the war’s most visible public face after Trump.

CBS News painted a less settled picture. Multiple sources told the network that Trump had been asking advisers, in person and by phone, whether Hegseth should remain in the job after the election, according to a CBS report published by WKMG. One source said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had been floated as a replacement. Other sources said the president had made no decision.

The White House pushed back. Spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the president has full confidence in Hegseth and praised the military operations in Iran and Venezuela, CBS reported.

What Hegseth is saying

The Pentagon’s answer was defiant. Spokesman Sean Parnell told ABC News that Hegseth would not be deterred by politicians seeking to score partisan points and that he is “100% committed to leading the Department until the end of President Trump’s term in office.”

Behind the scenes, Hegseth has been calling advisers since the results came in, The Washington Times reported. Before the vote, The Washington Post had reported that some administration officials and lawmakers had mused that he might leave if Republicans lost heavily, either to avoid scrutiny or to pursue political ambitions, according to a summary in Alternet.

What Democrats say they will do

Democrats have been explicit. “I’m going after Pete Hegseth,” said Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado, a former Army officer, according to USA Today. Rep. Robert Garcia of California, expected to chair the House Oversight Committee, put out a two-word statement: “LAWYER UP,” NPR reported.

Not all of the pressure comes from Democrats. Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, told CBS News that Hegseth faces a reckoning, USA Today reported.

Committee staffers told NPR that Democrats plan to press the Pentagon on the war’s cost to taxpayers and to force more war powers votes. With subpoena power, they could question Pentagon officials about the Iran war, the legality of strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats and Hegseth’s unexplained firings of senior officers, ABC News reported.

What Congress can and cannot do

Tool	What it takes	Realistic?
Hearings and subpoenas	Committee majority, starting in January	Almost certain
Impeachment by the House	Simple majority of the House	Possible; Democrats will have a large majority
Removal by the Senate	Two-thirds of senators present, or 67 if all vote	Unlikely; Democrats hold about 54 seats
Limits on war funding	Passing spending bills Trump will sign, or overriding a veto	Hard, but the biggest lever
Forcing Hegseth out	Only Trump can fire a Cabinet secretary	Depends on Trump

The math explains why Democrats talk more about investigations than removal. Under the Constitution, the House can impeach with a simple majority, but conviction in the Senate requires two-thirds of senators present, as the U.S. Senate explains. Even with at least seven Senate pickups, Democrats would need more than a dozen Republican votes to remove him.

There is precedent for impeaching a Cabinet secretary. The House impeached Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876 and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in 2024. Neither was convicted. The new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027, so no Democratic-led action can start before then.

The other problems piling up

Hegseth’s exposure goes beyond the war. On Nov. 2, three watchdog groups, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, Public Citizen and the Project On Government Oversight, sued the Pentagon over Project Meridian, an advisory effort involving Elon Musk. They allege it violates the Federal Advisory Committee Act, Yahoo News reported. No court has ruled on the claims.

The Missile Defense Agency also drew criticism for a no-bid, two-year radar maintenance extension worth up to $394 million to Raytheon, which admitted to defrauding the government in 2024, Raw Story reported, citing PunchUp. The agency said the contractor was not suspended or debarred and the work met a critical need.

And the firing of Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff’s top planner, in late October added to a list of nearly two dozen senior leaders fired or pushed out under Hegseth.

What happens next

Now through January: Republicans still control Congress. Any change at the Pentagon in this period would come from Trump.
Jan. 3, 2027: The new Congress is sworn in and Democrats take committee gavels.
Early 2027: Expect hearings on the Iran war’s cost and conduct, and requests for documents on the Sylvia firing and boat strikes.
2027 budget season: Pentagon spending bills, including the record request for next year, give Democrats their strongest leverage over policy and the war.