Trump's $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget meets a Democratic Congress: what survives and what's at risk

The Pentagon asked for the biggest budget in American history at a time when Republicans controlled everything. It will now be negotiated with a Congress run by Democrats who campaigned against the war that budget helps pay for.

The fiscal 2027 request totals about $1.5 trillion, roughly 42% above this year’s level, according to the White House’s own accounting as summarized by Military.com. The first test comes on Dec. 11, when current government funding runs out.

The request at a glance

Piece	Amount	Status
Regular defense funding	About $1.15 trillion	Not enacted; government on a stopgap since Oct. 1
Reconciliation package	About $350 billion	Republican budget plans include only $60 billion
Iran war supplemental	Nearly $70 billion	Pending
Golden Dome missile defense (total program cost)	$185 billion	Facing Democratic resistance

Figures are from Military.com’s summary of the request, Congressional Budget Office analysis and the Center for Strategic and International Studies. According to the CBO, the regular request would raise procurement by $94 billion, research and development by $75 billion and operations and maintenance by $48 billion compared with this year.

Hegseth’s pitch

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made the number central to his tenure. In July he called a failure to fully fund $1.5 trillion the greatest threat the nation faces, and in October he said the department wanted at least $350 billion through reconciliation, “potentially more,” Military.com reported.

Two days after the midterms, Hegseth recorded a video at the Pentagon urging every patriotic member of Congress to vote for the full budget, Federal News Network reported. He is doing so while facing a House impeachment vote over the Iran war.

What Democrats say they will do

The two men expected to run the armed services committees in January have been blunt:

Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, in line to chair the House Armed Services Committee, said the country needs an approach that does not require a budget above $1 trillion. He has called the Iran war illegal and said cutting its funding would be one of the first things Democrats do.
Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, expected to lead the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in April he would not rubber-stamp what he called a bloated, undisciplined budget.
Rep. Glenn Ivey of Maryland, a House appropriator, said he leaned toward another short-term funding fix rather than a long-term bill.

Bloomberg, citing an unnamed source, reported that Democrats are likely to approve a defense budget of only around $1 trillion, Military.com noted.

The Dec. 11 deadline

The government has run on a stopgap since the fiscal year began on Oct. 1. Democrats’ leverage in the lame-duck session is limited, since Republicans still control both chambers until Jan. 3, but their votes are needed in the Senate to pass spending bills. Many expect the big decisions to be pushed into January with another short-term measure, when Democrats take full control.

The calendar is tight. As of late October, the Senate had 22 scheduled session days left and the House 20, according to Military.com. Speaker Mike Johnson had planned to advance only one major bill under a rule in the first week back, frustrating some members, ABC News reported.

Budget watchdogs are wary of a rushed year-end deal. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has argued the lame-duck session should not become an excuse for more borrowing, in a recent analysis.

What is most at risk

Golden Dome

The administration’s nationwide missile defense shield carries a total cost of $185 billion, a Pentagon official told Military.com in June. Bloomberg reported that Democratic resistance puts it in jeopardy.

The battleship plan

Bloomberg also reported that the Navy’s plan for a new Trump-class battleship is imperiled.

Iran war money

The nearly $70 billion supplemental, driven largely by the war, is the most obvious target for Democrats who want to force an end to the conflict. Cutting it would not stop the war on its own, but it would force the Pentagon to pay for operations out of other accounts.

The reconciliation package

The $350 billion request, aimed at the defense industrial base, drones and artificial intelligence, depended on Republicans using a budget process that avoids a Senate filibuster. House Republicans’ budget resolution included only $60 billion, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said lining up the votes after the midterms would be difficult. CSIS expects the final figure to land closer to $60 billion.

What probably survives

Large parts of the defense budget have support in both parties, including military pay, readiness and replacing munitions used in the Iran war. CSIS noted that Congress passed full-year defense spending bills before year’s end in each of the last three midterm cycles. Travis Sharp of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments wrote that the final budget will likely fall short of the administration’s ambitions, and Todd Harrison of the American Enterprise Institute told Bloomberg that passage of the annual defense policy bill is a coin toss.

That policy bill, the National Defense Authorization Act, passed the House in July but failed a procedural vote in the Senate. Defense stocks have already reacted: Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman shares fell as expectations of a spending surge faded, Bloomberg reported.